Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
Most of the eastern sector of the country is likely to remain generally dry during the month of March. Much of the seasonal rainfall is likely to be recorded in April. The seasonal rainfall onset is expected during the second to third week of March over most parts of western Kenya. The January-February 2016 period was generally sunny and dry over most parts of the country. However, several parts of Western, Central Rift Valley and Central Highlands including Nairobi recorded substantial amounts of rainfall especially in February. The predicted onsets, cessation and distribution of rainfall were derived from statistical analysis of past years which exhibit similar characteristics to the current year.
The forecast indicates that most of the eastern sector of the country is likely to experience generally depressed rainfall. The specific outlook for March to May 2016 “Long-Rains” Season is as follows:
Western Counties (Busia, Butere, Mumias, Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma, etc.)
Nyanza Counties (Kisumu, Siaya, Migori, Kisii, Kuria, Nyamira, Borabu, Gucha,etc)
Counties in the Central and Southern Rift Valley (Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Kericho, Nandi,etc)
Central Counties (Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga,etc.)
Some Counties in Eastern Province (Embu, Meru, etc); are likely to receive near normal (average) rainfall.
EXPECTED ONSET AND CESSATION DATES
| Region | Onset Dates | Cessation Dates |
| 1. Counties in the Lake Basin and in Highlands West of the Rift Valley | 2nd to 3rd week of March 2016 | Rainfall will continue into June 2016 |
| 2. Southern parts of the Rift Valley (Narok, Kajiado etc) | 3rd to 4th week of March 2016 | 3rd to 4th week of May 2016 |
| 3. Central Rift Valley (Nakuru etc) | 4th week of March to 1st week of April 2016 | Rainfall will continue into June 2016 |
| 4 Central highlands including Nairobi area | 4th week of March to 1st week of April 2016 | 3rd to 4th week of May 2016 |
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
Agriculture, Food Security
In the agricultural counties of Western, Rift Valley and Central Highlands where average rainfall performance is expected, the farming communities should take advantage of the expected good rains and maximize crop yield through appropriate land-use management. Farmers are advised to liaise with the Ministry of Agriculture. The expected late onset and poor temporal distribution of the seasonal rainfall is, however, likely to delay planting in most agricultural areas.
Disaster Management Sector
Lightning strikes may still occur in Western Kenya especially within Kisii and Kakamega counties. Isolated cases of flooding in places like Budalang’i and Kano areas as well as landslides/mudslides in susceptible areas of Western, central and Rift Valley are also likely to occur.
Transport and Public Safety
Flash floods are likely to occur especially in Western, and some parts of Central Kenya. This may lead to transport problems and more so in areas where the roads become impassable when it rains.
Water Resources Management Sector
Water resources for drinking, sanitation and industrial use in the coastal region, western and central municipalities of the country are expected to improve due to the expected good rainfall in the regions.
Environment
People should also be encouraged to plant more indigenous trees in order to increase forest cover.
Source: Kenya Meteorological Department